Anderson, so a lot of enthusiasm in the room but they're going to need to do their work to raise money to take on the Democrats who are feeling pumped tonight. They really do think that they can win this one now -- Anderson.
COOPER: Jessica, appreciate. Thanks for getting that interview -- an exciting night obviously for her supporters.
Let's check in with our panel.
Paul, are Democrats maybe, you know, sort of measuring the drapes on this too quickly? She certainly -- everyone, I heard Bill Maher earlier tonight on Larry King saying, he used to be on her show, "Politically Incorrect", years and years ago. And he was kind of rooting for her because she's such a nice person in some ways.
PAUL BEGALA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I don't know her personally. I sort of defer to Bill on that. There's always that risk, there's a great legend in the Democratic Party about how the officials in the Carter White House used to run around saying we want to run against Reagan. They wanted to run against Reagan in the worst way and by golly they did.
So, yes, anybody in politics ought to step back and respect anybody who can win like that. And you know, the Tea Party activists in a Republican party have pulled off, at least by my count, eight maybe nine, really impressive statewide victories against powerful, entrenched establishment candidates.
That's an impressive thing, but that's in Republicans-only primaries which is it's kind of a gated community there in the Republican Party. In general election, there have only two where Tea Party candidates were running and fully funded and they lost both of them in the 23rd district of New York State where no Democrat had won in 152 years. The Democrat Bill Owens beat the Tea Party candidate, Doug Hoffman because the Republican candidate switched over and endorsed the Democratic.
In the Pennsylvania 12th district which had been Democratic for a long time. Jack Murtha was the Congressman there. He passed away. There was a credible Tea Party candidate. Barack Obama's favorable rating was 35 percent in that district. And yet the Democrat won there too.
So, it remains to be seen how powerful the Tea Party will be in a general election when it's not just "Republicans only" primary.
COOPER: Well, David Gergen, you know, there are some Democrats who have been going around and saying, you know, we want these Tea Party candidates to win because they're on the fringe and we're going to be able to win against them in a general election. I mean are they just kind of overly optimistic on that one?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I agree with Paul, it remains to be seen. But, Anderson, I do disagree with one point about what Paul said, and that is that if -- in Massachusetts, Scott Brown won that election for the Senate in part because he had so much support from the Tea Party. So I do think that there's going to be, now, a -- there are going to be some of these races where the Tea Party folks are, as candidates, are doing much better than anybody would have expected.
You know, people wrote off in Nevada, Ms. Angle out there against Harry Reid. That's a very close race still. And so I don't think they should be written off.
But I do think a big night for Jim DeMint, big night for Jim DeMint. And I do think there are very large questions now that are going to hang over us as -- after the elections, about how we govern the country, how decisions are reached in Washington, whether you can reach bipartisan agreement, say, on the budget deficits in the next couple years.
BEGALA: I just want to say, David's right. I'm sorry I left Scott Brown out, that's probably the most important victory since Barack Obama won and I can't believe I forgot it. So thanks David.
COOPER: John.
JOHN RIDLEY, NPR COMMENTATOR: You know, I was just going to say what's interesting though, up until today, the conversation was, how badly are the Democrats going to lose in the fall. And now all of a sudden it's all about the Republicans and the problems that they're having. It's not just here with the Tea Party but also you look at what's going on with the tax issue and the Bush tax cuts.
You've got Boehner and Mitch McConnell, the young guns all saying different things. It's really interesting that in about 24 hours the conversations really change. I don't think this is going to stop the Democrats from losing but it does allow them to look at the races and maybe focus in places more easily because you do have the Republicans running around and having to deal with themselves rather than just the Democrats.
COOPER: We're going to have more with our panel; a reminder the panel is with us throughout this hour. The live chat is up and running. Also let us know at AC360.com -- you can talk to viewers around the world watching right now, around the United States as well. Let us know what you think of tonight.
Up next: Dover, Delaware to Harlem, New York City. We'll check in on Charlie Rangel's race to hang on for a 4th decade in Congress.
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COOPER: Exciting night, a lot of upsets tonight, will New York's 15th congressional district be one of them? That's the question right now; Democratic Congressman Charlie Rangel in the fight of his career, facing an ethics investigation, no longer chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee.
Tonight it's win or go home, the race against Adam Clayton Powell IV, the son of the man Congressman Rangel defeated to win his seat in the house way back in 1970. Congressman Rangel, holding a substantial lead right now, about 2-1, but they've only 19 percent of precincts counted. Joe Johns is at the headquarters right now -- Joe?
JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Anderson. Twenty terms, looking for his 21st term; a slightly surreal night here in Harlem quite frankly. This is a lively crowd but it's not a very large crowd at all. Surprisingly, few people here, waiting for what is expected by many to be a win for Charlie Rangel.
Not that surprising, of course, given the ethics allegations against him in Washington, D.C., allegations of not filling out his financial disclosure forms properly, handling improperly donations for a center he was trying to build here for public service in the city of New York.
So, we're still going to have to wait quite a while because there's an issue of course with voting machines here in New York to get the final numbers. A lot of the institutional Democratic Party turning out for Charlie Rangel, including governor David Paterson; the former mayor, David Jenkins; some members of congress all expecting a victory for Charlie Rangel despite those issues.
COOPER: All right Joe. We'll check in with you. It looks like he's obviously way ahead right now, 2-1.
Back with our panel: David Gergen, Paul Begala, Erick Erickson, John Ridley and Kate Zernike.
David, I mean John Ridley brought up earlier the idea that a victory for Rangel is not necessarily the best thing for the Democratic Party. It allows Republicans to say Democrats talked about draining the swamp in Washington and ending a culture of corruption. Charlie Rangel is facing allegations and at this point they are just allegations, but 13 ethics violation charges.
GERGEN: I think that's right. It looks like to me he's going to win. But there's no question that the Republicans would like to have him around. They'd like to keep him out there in the ether. Look, after tonight there's a very real chance the conversation is going to turn to, is there some sort of civil war going on in the right, within Republicans, among conservatives, that sort of thing.
Are we seeing something like what we saw back the 1960s when the rise of Barry Goldwater seized power in the party back from the establishment, took it, but then went on to get a real drubbing in that '64 national election and from that built a conservative movement that did become quite powerful. But it took a while.
So that's going to be the conversation. Republicans are not going to like that conversation very much. They're going to want part of the conversation to be about, hey, there are a lot of problems with these establishment Democrats. In a mood when the country is anti- establishment, anti-status quo, keep Charlie Rangel aground. That will be something the Republicans will like.
ZERNIKE: I think actually anti -- as much as the energy is on the right this time, as much as the enthusiasm gap favors the right this time, I think actually the anti-incumbent sentiment is also on the right.
Someone mentioned Arkansas earlier. And the anti-incumbency doesn't seem to be as strong on the Democratic side. But I also think, as David mentioned that we need to think about November 3rd -- not to mention November 2nd, which is Election Day.
If these Tea Party candidates lose, I think the Republicans are going to say, hey look, conservative candidates can't win, we need to go back to the middle.
RIDLEY: You know, it's interesting because David talked about in the 1960s with Barry Goldwater. Nixon framed himself as being the reasonable conservative. He was the guy who came after Goldwater. And the question is now is there going to be that conservative, that Republican who comes along and says I'm the reasonable guy.
I know Erick said something earlier about whether there really are moderate Republicans or not, but I think people are looking for that. We see it all the time in races. People left or right, they run on the fringe. Comes down to the general election, you have to move towards that middle.
(CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: No, but you know, it has not moved toward the middle since. The party of Reagan was more conservative than the party Nixon; the party of Gingrich more conservative than the party of Reagan; the party of Bush more conservative than the party of Gingrich and now the party of, who knows, Christine O'Donnell and Sarah Palin, way more conservative than the party of Bush. These guys are going farther and farther right.
ERICKSON: It's the party of Erickson. Yes, the party of Erickson.
BEGALA: You guys, I think it's all honorable but it's gone very, very far right. The Republican Party today would be unrecognizable to Dwight Eisenhower from a half century ago.
ERICKSON: You know, that's true to a degree but I also think the country moves around as well. What we're forgetting about in all of these races and what every political pundit I think tends to forget about are (INAUDIBLE). And things can change.
And it's one thing for us to on a static night tonight say this is what's going to happen on November 2nd with Christine O'Donnell -- she's going to lose. Or this guy's going to win or what have you.
Events change; there's a lot of time between now and November. I know political consultants look at the calendar. I used to be one and say, there's not. But things change and what happens this year is not going to be the same as what happens in two years.
Remember, a year and a half ago, the big story was the annihilation of the Republican Party. "Time" magazine's headline called them an endangered species and they're about to probably take back the House. Things change.
RIDLEY: They do change but is it going to be the same Republican Party that takes back the House if they do. That's the question. They may come back. Remember, the Republicans used to be more like the Democrats. These things shift. It's still basically a two-party system.
COOPER: David?
GERGEN: Yes, I just wanted to say, I want to come back to this point about just after the election. If you're a Republican incumbent coming to Washington after the election, one of the clear messages out of this, these primaries is that if you work across the aisle and work with Democrats, you do so at risk to your political life. Because we've now seen several, you know, like Bob Bennett out in the west, or Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, or now Mike Castle.
The sins that these people are committing that knocked them out is that they've been working with Democrats to try to come up with bipartisan solutions. So it seems to be the one clear message to Republicans is, and to go to Erick's point. Don't you think Erick, if you are an establishment Republican; you're going to work with the Democrats you're going to do so at great risk. Given the disgust with the status quo we see among the Tea Party folks.
ERICKSON: You know, I think David there is something to that. And I'll tell you, I was talking to a Republican senator last week other than Jim DeMint who said one of his frustrations with Washington is this idea that on big issues there has to be some sort of compromise and coming together. And he is one of the conservative senators but there is a lot of frustration out there that it's not just on the Republican side.
My friend Jane Hampshire runs a very liberal Web site called Firedoglake and she has the frustration with Democrats that there are issues where there are clear ideological lines where both sides the at grassroots level feel like they were worth fighting for, and they see guys to go to Washington who don't fight, but compromise. And it frustrates them.
Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad, inevitably it grows government and right now a lot of conservatives are upset about that.
COOPER: But David Gergen, you've worked in numerous White Houses, both Republican and Democrat. Isn't compromise key to actually accomplishing something?
GERGEN: Well, Anderson, I -- there are some issues on which you know, Barack Obama and the Democrats have rammed through without a lot of bipartisanship, with no Republican votes, essentially.
But coming back to one of the central issues for the next two years is how we're going to get a-hold of this fiscal deficit. How we're going to get government spending under control, how we're going to try to balance our books. There is no way we're going to get from here to some sort of solution to that without the two parties joining forces.
There simply aren't enough votes to do the hard things, whether it's going back into Medicare, reforming social security, or doing it with home deductions, or cutting defense, all of those things are going to require people to work across the aisles. That's why we have this bipartisan deficit commission that may hold some hope.
But if Republicans come into the next year and Democrats come in saying if you work with the other side, you're going to get punished in your next primary. You're out of here if do you that, that's going to make it very, very difficult.
Transcript from Anderson Cooper AC360 aired September 14, 2010