WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: You know, when he says, Charlie Crist, Gloria, that this is uncharted territory, maybe in Florida, it is, but, in Connecticut, we had a situation develop, as all of our viewers will remember, when the incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman did not get the Democratic primary nomination. He ran as an independent. And guess what? He is the independent senator from Connecticut right now. He won.
Is there a situation unfolding in Florida that could be similar to what happened in Connecticut?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Could be. Could be.
Look, you know, this is a real gamble for Charlie Crist, because, first of all, if you talk to any Republicans in the establishment -- and, don't forget, Charlie Crist was the establishment candidate, handpicked by the Republican establishment to run for this Senate seat.
So, now he's taking a total turn because he is way behind in the primary, as you point out -- 22 percent of the registered voters in Florida say they're unaffiliated. He's making a big gamble here. He is saying that those unaffiliated voters are moderates who would tend to vote for him, as opposed to Marco Rubio or perhaps the Democratic candidate, Kendrick Meek.
That is not at all clear to people you talk to in the state, because voters who tend to be unaffiliated right now, independents, are angry and tend to be more conservative than not. So, you know, this is a big gamble for him, because his political future in the Republican Party, at least, is over. If he wins, he's a really important United States senator.
BLITZER: Democratic strategist James Carville, is here. Republican strategist Kevin Madden is here as well.
Kevin, how worried should Republicans be that that Republican vote will now be split between the more moderate Charlie Crist, the more conservative Marco Rubio, paving the way for the Democratic, Kendrick Meek, to be elected?
KEVIN MADDEN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I have saying in politics. Worrying is for those people without a plan.
I think that the Marco Rubio folks have a plan. What they're going to do is go out and they're going to appeal to the principles of the Republican base. They're going to go out and try and tap into that independent -- independents that are starting to align themselves with Republicans, and then they're going to appeal to a lot of those Panhandle Democrats who are unhappy with not only their own party, but they're happy with the -- unhappy with the status quo in Washington.
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BLITZER: Marco Rubio is getting ready, by the way, to speak, and get his reaction. We will have live coverage of that as well.
But go ahead. Finish your point.
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MADDEN: Well, I could not help but laugh throughout that entire speech, that Governor Crist -- Governor Crist speech, because here is somebody who is talking about a broken system.
He is governor. He was chosen by the NRSC, endorsed by the NRSC. The system that he's talking about, he was very much a part of until yesterday, so, I mean, he may have a message. It's a new message, for sure, but it is one that is entirely, squarely at odds with his public persona.
BLITZER: James?
JAMES CARVILLE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it might have been cliche-ridden, focus-group-tested, poll-driven, but he has a message.
In fact, what cracks me up is Joe Lieberman is the most establishment -- here's the Democratic vice presidential nominee. He leaves the. He runs as an independent and all these people are saying, oh, Joe's got great integrity.
And then Charlie Crist, no less a Republican than Joe Lieberman was a Democrat, and all of a sudden, oh, he's just a cravenly ambitious guy.
He may be, but he does have a message. And I don't know -- and they're going to make this about the messenger, not his message, I promise you that.
BLITZER: David Gergen, what does this say, bigger picture right now, in terms of where the country is as far as the lead-up to the midterm elections?
GERGEN: Well, I think a lot of this is about Charlie Crist and the problems with Florida, but it does have a national implication, and that is a moderate establishment figure who is also seen very much as an insider, and others have been making this argument, going down in effect within his own party, because of this insurgency of conservatives who have rallied against him.
Now, in this case it's also Florida-centric because in Marco Rubio there is a very strong candidate. It was not as if he's just a nobody. And he's someone who has captured the imagination of a whole lot of people in Florida and beyond in the conservative movement, so a lot of conservatives have come in to support him, even before Crist made this decision.
BLITZER: And, Gloria, when James Carville says that there were a lot of focus-group-tested comments, cliches, if you will, that the governor, Charlie Crist, made, I took some notes -- our political system is broken. The American people are sick of this political infighting, the name-calling, the politics of political destruction.
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BLITZER: They look at Washington, they don't like what they see.
He was saying all the stuff that a lot of people agree with.
BORGER: It was tired of gridlock. And what about this, putting people first? Have we heard that before? I mean, it was -- it was every political cliche that we have been hearing.
Only, it does have some resonance this election year, because voters are angry. But let me say, there are a couple other factors here. One is, as you touched on earlier in the show, is President Obama, kind of an unknown factor here, the economy obviously a very big unknown factor.
And I would have to say that this is probably going to become a very nasty political race, because you can be sure that Governor Crist is going to throw some ethics charges at Marco Rubio. And it will go back and forth and back and forth.
That may be good for the Democratic candidate, but I think, you know, put your seat belts on. It's going to be one tough race.
BLITZER: Yes, we just got a in from the chairman of the Republican Party, Michael Steele.
Let me read a line or two from it: "Now more than ever, Floridians need leadership in Washington. With unemployment at an all-time high in Florida, they want a senator to exercise strong fiscal discipline and be a catalyst for job creation. Without question, the Republican nominee this fall will offer those qualities. Governor Charlie Crist, however, will not be that candidate."
No surprise, Michael Steele is endorsing Marco Rubio, as the Republican candidate.
Very, very quickly, James, give me your bottom-line assessment. If we look ahead to November, who wins? CARVILLE: If the wind comes out of the west and that massive oil spill in the Gulf hits the Florida coast, then Rubio's not going to win. If the wind goes out of the east and keeps it away, he's got a pretty good chance.
MADDEN: Marco Rubio is going to win because he's going to talk about spending, spending, spending in Washington.
BLITZER: All right, we're going to be hearing from Marco Rubio. He's reacting to what the governor, Charlie Crist, just said. We're also going to be hear from Kendrick Meek. He's the Democratic candidate -- much more of this coming up.
Transcript from The Situation Room aired April 29,2010