Listen, we got some -- some interesting developments out of -- out of Washington. Rhode Island Representative Patrick Kennedy, the son of Edward Kennedy, is announcing that he is not running again when his term expires. Listen to this.
REP. PATRICK KENNEDY (D), RHODE ISLAND: My father instilled in me a deep commitment to public service, whether through elected office, like he and his brothers, or nonprofit advocacy like my Aunt Eunice's work with Special Olympics. Now, having spent two decades in politics, my life has taken a new direction, and I will not be a candidate for re-election this year. Going forward I will...
VELSHI: And the reason it has music on it is that's a commercial that he's releasing.
The interesting thing here is that that means that it will be the first time, the next Congress, elected in November, taking office in January, will be the first time since 1962 that a Kennedy has not been in Congress. The 48-year stretch of Kennedys on Capitol ill -- Hill, all of whom have had a similar political bent, in fact, a very specific political agenda.
Let's bring in our senior CNN political analyst, David Gergen, who's in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and our deputy political editor, Paul Steinhauser, who's in Washington, to discuss this for a moment.
David, is there significance other than the -- the emotional and symbolic significance of the fact that there won't be a Kennedy on Capitol Hill?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it's certainly the passing of an age. Here in Massachusetts, Ali, actually, people think that not only goes back to 1962, but the Kennedy dynasty really started in 1947, when Jack Kennedy went to Washington, you know, fresh, had put away his war uniform, a hero, and then elected in 1946, went to Washington. Same freshman class as Nixon, by the way.
And so there has been a legend here in Massachusetts for a long time and in the northeast that is important to understand. And as it comes to an end.
But I think it's also, of course, there -- one has to take into account not only the stresses of Patrick Kennedy's life, but the fact is, he was also facing a tough re-election. There was a poll recently that showed he had 56 percent unfavorability. Now, maybe he could have overcome that in the election. But I think it shows, as Paul I'm sure will underscore, the shifting winds in politics, as well, that took Scott Brown to the Senate.
Patrick Kennedy called Scott Brown's candidacy a joke, and here's Scott Brown, as 41st senator. So is there something -- there's a significance that stretches beyond the legend itself.
VELSHI: And that's the -- that's the important part of this conversation. It's not just the legend; it's also that significance.
Paul Steinhauser keeps very close track of that. He watches these numbers come in. And they're -- one might argue, Paul, that the mores and the values that the Kennedys have represented for so long, those solid liberal values are perhaps, in the end of 2009, early 2010, about as out-of-fashion as they've been for a while. It doesn't mean they don't come back into fashion. But this isn't a high point for those -- those sorts of politics.
PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR: One thing national polling is showing, Ali, our polling and just about everybody else, is that Republican voters, conservative voters seem to be much more energized right now than Democratic voters or liberal voters.
And, hey, the last three statewide elections, the one David was just talking about, that special in Massachusetts for the Senate, and the two gubernatorials last November, the Republicans scored three big victories, took three seats away from the Democrats.
So it seems like the energy, the enthusiasm right now is on the Republican and conservative side.
VELSHI: But we do know winds shift very quickly.
We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, these two gentlemen stay with us to discuss. It's not just the Kennedys. It's not just -- just this seat that's not going to be contested by a Kennedy: there are all sorts of people from both parties who are not running again. How that is going to affect the shifting political winds in the United State. This conversation continues in a minute.
VELSHI: A hundred and three bucks. That's what consumers are expected to spend on Valentine's Day. I'm always surprised by how much it cost. Valentine's Day gifts, meals, entertainment, chocolate, things like that. Knock yourselves out. Fifty cents more than 2009. Recession, what recession?
No matter that it's changing the political landscape and changing the way people vote, people are still spending on Valentine's Day.
But you both, David Gergen, our senior political analyst and Paul Steinhauser, our deputy political director, you both point out shifting winds, changing political landscape.
David, let's examine this a little bit more. Patrick Kennedy has pressures on his own life. As you mentioned, he may be making a very personal choice. He certainly served for a long time. But is it less welcoming an environment for not just for a Kennedy but -- but for liberal Democrats right now?
GERGEN: Sure. There is an anti-incumbent wind blowing, blowing very hard. We are all seeing these various surveys. CNN and others are showing a vast majority of Americans are dissatisfied with government and the direction it's taking. And because the Democrats have larger numbers and they're in power, this -- it tends to have a greater impact on them.
We're seeing a large number of retirements. We have 32 retirements so far, and it's likely to be -- to go higher. And it's going to be probably higher than what we've seen on average over the last three election cycles, which has been 34. And those are going to be Democratic seats. There is a widespread feeling in Washington, and Paul can probably identify the numbers a little more precisely.
VELSHI: Yes.
GERGEN: But I think there's widespread feeling that Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats this November if things continue. Not sure if they'll lose their majority, but it's going to be a blow for the Democrats.
VELSHI: Paul, let's talk of this. Of those 32 departures -- and these are retirements; these are people running for other offices -- actually, a couple more of them are Republican than Democrat.
STEINHAUSER: Yes. I sent out this e-mail list every time a member of the House decides to retire. And Ali, it seems like I'm sending it out every five minutes this week. Seriously, we've had four this week, four. And of those, half were Democrats, half were Republicans.
And you've got about, yes, about 30, 32 vacancies so far. And as David said, that's kind of average, what we've seen the last couple years. It's nowhere close to 1994. That's when the Republicans stormed back and won control of the House and the Senate. Fifty-two.
VELSHI: And when Patrick Kennedy was first elected.
STEINHAUSER: Exactly. That was his first year, first election victory. We had 52 that year, and of those, 31 were Democratic retirements.
But as David said, we're going to see more retirements, most likely, over the next few weeks and over the next few months, because most of these states haven't had their deadlines yet for declaring a candidacy.
So, this is -- and as David also mentioned, our polls, the CNN poll, we just took about two weeks ago. You know what? About half of the people we questioned said that they were angry at both political parties...
VELSHI: Right.
STEINHAUSER: Not just the Democrats. But the simple task, the Republicans need 40 seats. They need to win 40 seats in November to take back control of the House. That's a lot, but in this climate, we will see.
VELSHI: All right, gentlemen, good to talk to you both. Paul Steinhauser and David Gergen, always a pleasure to talk to you both. We'll have a chance to keep doing that math on this show throughout the course of the year.