THE SITUATION ROOM Transcript of show that Aired February 3, 2010 - 17:00 ET
Let's bring in CNN's senior political analyst, David Gergen.
I guess the question, is it really possible -- 59 Democrats, 57 Democrats, two Independents who caucus with the Democrats -- is it really possible they could be in the minority after the midterm election this year?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER: Well, Wolf, you know, only a few months ago, that was outside the realm of imagination -- totally unimaginable. At best, the Republicans might pick up two, three or four seats.
But now, after Scott Brown's victory, given the sourness in the country, the reality is setting in -- the new reality is setting in for Democrats, hey, these Republicans can make sizable gains and it is mathematically possible. It is, for the first time, within the realm of imagination, they could actually pick up control.
Let's look at it. As you know, there are 100 seats in the Senate. The Republicans right now need -- have 41. They need to pick up 10.
There are three states where they are now favored -- Arkansas, Delaware and North Dakota -- one, two, three of the 10 that they need.
There are four states right now, Wolf, that are considered competitive -- Nevada, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Colorado. That's four more. So now they're down to three. And lo and behold, there are three states in which Democrats are potentially vulnerable. In Indiana, Dan Coates just announced against Evan Bayh today. That makes that -- that's going to make that more competitive.
California -- we just saw in Dana's piece how Barbara Boxer was asked to ask a question. That's a potential seat for them, too.
And New York -- surprisingly, Hillary Clinton's old seat. That's a possibility, too. Very unlikely to happen, Wolf, but for the first time, it is within the realm of imagination.
And what that does suggest, when you've got -- they'd have to run the whole board. But when you've got 10 seats like that, that are possibly in play, there is a reasonable possibility, if things continue the way they are, that you'll pick up a number of them. And that would -- too, would change the dynamics in Washington.
BLITZER: But that assumes the Republicans don't lose any incumbent seats.
Are they have -- do they have any endangered seats on the Republican side?
GERGEN: There are some endangered seats on -- on the Republican side and that's a very good point/counterpoint. In particular, the -- the fight that's going on in Florida, where there's a Republican seat. Charlie Crist, the -- the incumbent governor now, is facing a candidate who's heavily favored by the Tea Party group. And what's happened here is Rubio, the challenger -- the conservative challenger, has moved ahead of Crist in the polls. If Rubio won the nomination, that could put that seat -- easily put that seat in jeopardy for the Republicans. And there are a few.
But let's look a little deeper at some of these, if we could, Wolf.
In Arkansas, the most notable, I think, of all of these is two- term incumbent, Blanche Lincoln. She is now running against five different Republican opponents. She's now running some 20 points behind. And there's a fellow named John Boozman, who's a Congressman there, who just announced, who's regarded as a very, very strong competitor against her, 20 points up. So that's Blanche Lincoln.
Let's look at another one here. This is a -- this is a hard one for Democrats because it's Joe Biden's old seat. And he's had someone who has been a close friend and aid in that seat. Everybody thought that Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden, very popular in Delaware, would run. He's not -- he clearly was not going to run now. And suddenly, Mike Castle, who is a big Republican name in Delaware, is the favorite in that seat. To lose Joe Biden's seat would be -- it would be a real sadness for the Democrats.
And finally -- and very, very importantly -- Barack Obama's old seat. You know, he had Richard Burris in that seat. There's been a lot of controversy. Richard Burris decided not to run. And now, Wolf, just yesterday, a fellow named Mark Kirk won the Republican nomination. He's a Congressman. He's a moderate. He may not play -- please the Tea Party folks, but he's very popular in Illinois. And suddenly, that seat is extremely competitive.
So there are a lot of seats out there, Wolf, that are in Republican hands -- that are in Democratic hands that are very competitive today.
BLITZER: Good point. And David, as all of our viewers by now know, that if a Republican can win the Senate seat in Massachusetts, potentially, every Senate seat is at play right now in this...
GERGEN: That's exactly right...
BLITZER: ...political (INAUDIBLE).
GERGEN: Scott Brown is coming to Washington tomorrow...
BLITZER: Yes.
GERGEN: ...to be -- because they -- they've moved it up. He's going to be sworn in tomorrow afternoon.
BLITZER: And he'll be the successor to Senator Kennedy.
Who would have believed that only a few weeks ago?
David Gergen, thank you very much.