Could The Republicans be One Step Closer ?

A new poll suggested Republicans could be one step closer to taking over the reins of power in Washington at least in one house, the House of Representatives, only eight days from now. Let's talk about that and more with another member of the best political team on television, our senior political analyst, David Gergen. Let me put up these numbers on the new poll that Politico and George Washington University, the battleground poll put out. Among independent voters, David, would you vote for a Republican or Democrat candidate for Congress? Among these independent voters, 44 percent said they would vote for the Republican. 30 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. A 14-point spread. That's a significant number, I suspect, you're going to tell us, David.

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely, Wolf. And in some ways, it's one of the untold stories of this election. We've been focusing so much on the tea party, which is an enormous force in this election. But so are the independents and this gigantic shift we're seeing, almost a seismic shift we're seeing of independents who voted heavily for Democrats and four years ago in the midterms and voted heavily for President Obama have shifted in this election. So this -- this Georgetown Politico poll finds them 14 points ahead on the Republican side at a time when the generic difference overall among all voters in that same poll is only five points. So you can see the independents adding a lot of weight. And the independent vote, Wolf, is bigger today than it has been in a number of years. About 10 years ago some 30, 31 percent, 32 percent of Americans tended to say they were independent. Now it's about almost 40 percent of Americans say they are independent.

BLITZER: If we dig deeper on these independents, our recent CNN Opinion Research Corporation poll continuing we asked the independents their views of the tea party movement. Look at this -- of those independents, 43 percent say they support the tea party. 15 percent say they oppose the tea party. 39 percent said they were neutral. But a lot more of these independents like the tea party than don't.

GERGEN: That's right. They agree with them heavily on the issue of spending, anti-spending. And they agree heavily on their views about anti-the health care bill. The independents have come over very strongly on that. But, Wolf, what we're seeing I think more generally is that a lot of Americans are no longer anchored in one party or the other. And they move essentially with the tides of what's going on with public affairs. This election -- this is one of the most interesting things about this election. This election we're going to see more than 20 house seat switch hands. We know that. What is interesting is this is the third straight election in which we've seen 20 house seats switch. That kind of volatility we haven't seen in a long time. This is the first time in over 60 years when we've seen three straight elections for the House of Representatives in which more than 20 seats shift hands. That says a lot about how the independents are not anchored. They're going one way and they're going the other. And if you're the Republicans, you may win them this time, but you could lose them next time, unless you perform while you're in office.

BLITZER: Look how quickly things changed between 2008 and 2010. So they can change again before 2012. Because the American public wants change, but they're not yet getting the change, at least if you believe the polls that they want. David, thanks very much.

GERGEN: Thanks, Wolf.

Transcript From The Situation Room Aired October 25, 2010